Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, has a population of only 57,000. Eighty per cent of its surface is covered by an ice sheet. Its geopolitical importance is no doubt largely due to the world map created by the Flemish geographer and cartographer Gerardus Mercator in 1569. The still widely used cylindrical projection he chose to represent our spherical world distorts the polar regions: Greenland appears as big as Africa, though it is only one fourteenth of the size. Perceptions of its significance in military, maritime and trade terms are similarly overblown.

Global warming has revived interest in the centuries-old legend of a Northwest Passage between the Atlantic and the Pacific. Yet, since Norwegian explorer Roald Amundsen’s 1906 transit, only 317 ships (48 of them US-registered) have successfully navigated any of the convoluted and hazardous routes between Greenland and Canada’s northern islands. In 2025 just 34 (relatively small) vessels managed it, battling winds, currents, ice fields, icebergs, uncertain shallows and dangerous coastlines.

Open for only a few weeks each summer, the Northwest Passage is shorter than the Panama route, but takes longer. It will probably never be a viable trade route, at least not for decades or even centuries to come. Its potential is often confused with that of the Northeast Passage (along the Arctic coasts of Norway and Russia), opened up by melting sea ice though still tricky to navigate and presenting many logistical challenges.

Donald Trump may see Russian and Chinese ships everywhere, but they usually stick to Russian coastal waters, far from Greenland, and are bound for ports in Europe as often as Asia. Russian icebreakers (the heaviest nuclear-powered) dominate the Arctic because they fulfil a specific need. (…)

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