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Mike Smithson: SA’s worst bird flu fears may be unfolding as numbers climb

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South Australia has reached its most pivotal time in the looming H5 bird flu crisis, as authorities confirm seven birds found on the coast have the virus.

The seven greater crested terns were all found in coastal locations with one at Cape Jaffa, five at Southend and one at Port MacDonnell.

There have now been 27 detections of the virus in Australia and further testing is being done on the birds to see if there is any local transmission evidence.

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This new batch isn’t cause for panic yet, but is a firm indicator of what to expect.

SA’s Primary Industries Minister Clare Scriven and Chief Veterinary Officer Dr Skye Fruean were trying to keep a calm demeanour on Monday when the results were still up in the air.

But they then fronted up 24 hours later with the news.

“While this is not good news, we remain encouraged by the public’s vigilance and the extent to which they are taking the threat of H5 bird flu seriously,” Scriven said.

Of the seven new cases five were at one location near the jetty at Beachport.

So, why is this a sign that shouldn’t be ignored?

Until now, the isolated cases have been spread out and are relatively manageable without sounding unnecessary alarm bells.

But this five is now a cluster of native seabirds all with the H5 strain and it could indicate a migratory bird has infected them and perhaps moved onto another location.

“It does bring some unwelcome news,” was the initial reaction from Dr Fruean.

With bird flu spreading, seven sick greater crested terns have been  found in South Australia. With bird flu spreading, seven sick greater crested terns have been found in South Australia. Credit: AAP

But it’s far greater than just unwelcome, having the warning signs that authorities fear most.

The southeast of the state is the first port of call for migratory seabirds from the infected Antarctic regions and there could be worse to come as winter rolls on.

Community forums are being staged across parts of the state to inform the public and industry groups to be the eyes and ears of an awareness campaign.

Tens of millions of dollars are being spent on air surveillance from helicopters and drones to be on the lookout for sick creatures before they can infect poultry farms.

It is almost too grim to contemplate with the the minister’s ominous original rhetoric.

“This is potentially very serious indeed,” Ms Scriven said.

“There is a very high risk from what we see in terms of the wild seabirds.

“Obviously they travel and there’s a very high possibility that it will get into poultry,” she said.

I don’t envy the tasks of anyone in government in trying to predict timelines or establish some sort of fencing around the state to stop H5 landing here with force.

The slow drip of cases doesn’t help the cause either as the public could lean towards complacency or even be asleep at the wheel when the problem peaks.

The minister and Dr Fruean played down hypotheticals in their original media conference, which caused some frustration with journalists attending.

The Premier has been more strident in where he sees the virus problem going.

There’s no one-way to approach media spin on H5 bird flu, but when it undoubtedly arrives with impact, no one in government can be blamed for not warning us.

There will be more to come, the exact question is when?

Mike Smithson is weekend newsreader and political analyst for 7News Adelaide.

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