A growing number of Australians will still be carrying hundreds of thousands of dollars in mortgage debt well into their 50s, new modelling suggests.

The analysis from specialist advisory firm The Mortgage Coach challenges long‑held assumptions about homeownership and retirement.

It shows a couple who borrows about $800,000 at age 38 on today’s average owner‑occupier variable rate of 6.19 per cent would still owe about $500,000 by age 55 even while making consistent repayments.

Know the news with the 7NEWS app: Download today

By age 65 they would still owe roughly $140,000.

It’s a stark shift from the traditional Australian dream: buy a home when you’re young, pay it off and retire debt‑free.

That pathway is rapidly slipping out of reach due to rising costs of everyday living and “set and forget” mortgage rates.

‘Debt can persist much longer than people expect’

The Mortgage Coach co-founder John Maxwell said the numbers reflect a structural shift in how long Australians are now carrying debt.

“We’re now seeing scenarios where someone can still have about $500,000 of debt in their mid‑50s, despite making consistent repayments,” he told 7NEWS.com.au.

“Debt itself isn’t the problem; for many Australians it’s what allows them to enter the property market. The issue is how that debt behaves over time. If it’s left to run on autopilot, it can persist much longer than people expect.”

It’s becoming common for would-be retirees to still have a mortgage. Credit: The Mortgage Coach

Maxwell said many borrowers understand their repayment amount, but not the mechanics behind it.

“Most people aren’t shown how their mortgage actually behaves over time, they’re just told what the repayment is,” he said.

“Interest is calculated daily on the balance but that’s not something most borrowers are ever taught how to think about.”

A generation buying later and borrowing far more

The numbers underline how dramatically the landscape has changed.

In the mid‑1990s, the average new home loan was about $97,000. Today it is about $736,000; more than seven times higher in a single generation, according to Australia Broker News.

First‑home buyers are entering the market 10–15 years later than their parents, often in their late 30s or 40s, according to The Mortgage Coach.

More Australians are carrying mortgage debt later in life. Credit: The Mortgage Coach

It means a standard 30‑year mortgage taken out at that age now stretches deep into a borrower’s 60s, even when nothing goes wrong.

“Access to larger amounts of credit has supported property price growth but it also means households are carrying larger and longer‑term debt commitments,” Maxwell said.

The hidden danger of ‘set and forget’ mortgages

Minimum repayments often mask the reality of how slowly the principal reduces in the early years of a large loan.

Even refinancing, while easing short‑term pressure, can quietly reset the clock, pushing the debt horizon further into retirement.

“As Australians buy later and take on larger loans, the traditional ‘set and forget’ approach is being stretched beyond what it was designed for,” Maxwell said.

“Many mortgages are treated as a ‘set and forget’ decision, whereas some borrowers choose to review and, in some cases, professionally monitor their debt over time.”

‘Set and forget’ minimum repayments can come back to bite in a few decades. Credit: The Mortgage Coach

For couples in their mid‑40s juggling work, kids and rising costs, it can feel like they’re “doing everything right”.

But long‑term modelling often shows the debt still tracking into their mid‑60s, according to The Mortgage Coach.

“For many Australians, the focus has been on getting into the market,” Maxwell said.

“But increasingly, it’s what happens after that which is going to matter more, not just owning a home but looking at how that debt reduces over time.”

A shifting landscape

The Mortgage Coach said the broader trend is clear: borrowers are entering the market later, loan sizes have grown significantly relative to income and many Australian’s mortgages are set up and left unchanged for long periods, erasing possible savings.

The result is a generation facing long‑term debt that follows them far closer to retirement than ever before, according to The Mortgage Coach team.